Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 21.631834 25.423924 30.077499 36.347726 44.807851 56.204722 73.457953
2024-12-22 16.721022 20.865149 26.472419 34.993417 48.412194 70.475381 114.582924
2024-12-29 14.360933 18.614728 24.750412 34.891300 52.845659 87.791055 180.126726
2025-01-05 12.370248 16.411137 22.476665 33.064613 53.389066 98.310980 250.156341
2025-01-12 10.759345 14.490001 20.237975 30.647950 51.797746 103.219201 318.056720
2025-01-19 9.588532 13.073813 18.561480 28.815405 50.709574 108.842965 412.412055
2025-01-26 9.747703 13.712617 20.313049 33.714338 66.618134 181.670426 1792.599749
2025-02-02 9.435722 13.543648 20.636911 35.882377 77.367780 260.964453 17082.029714
2025-02-09 8.650649 12.500703 19.231396 33.985318 75.649589 278.145635 190604.543819
2025-02-16 8.350054 12.247951 19.253370 35.315032 84.830829 392.218982 NaN
2025-02-23 7.923817 11.734535 18.706909 35.175103 89.118048 495.101876 NaN
2025-03-02 7.516752 11.219323 18.094527 34.743002 92.219853 613.597391 NaN
2025-03-09 7.205033 10.874132 17.832179 35.302869 100.605372 922.877130 NaN
2025-03-16 6.756067 10.246314 16.927012 33.976123 100.096809 1093.577054 NaN
2025-03-23 6.456975 9.869676 16.500822 33.879658 105.601099 1629.198361 NaN
2025-03-30 6.055196 9.274558 15.554816 32.130865 101.706294 1747.680205 NaN
2025-04-06 5.640715 8.633528 14.463787 29.814127 93.863808 1551.878566 NaN
2025-04-13 5.299600 8.113731 13.598906 28.054845 88.514534 1485.822461 NaN
2025-04-20 5.463511 8.551539 14.835014 32.753102 124.331331 21800.737872 NaN
2025-04-27 5.415442 8.578496 15.168774 34.827551 148.819097 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.135666 8.134656 14.382113 33.012541 140.944893 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.054210 8.077580 14.489131 34.284971 161.562845 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 4.899688 7.865443 14.210999 34.151121 169.653327 NaN NaN